Climate change making monsoons erratic and incessant; more than 70% of Indian districts are exposed to extreme rainfall events: IPE Global and Esri India Study

The study also found that 84 per cent of Indian districts are exposed to extreme heat wave and rising temperature

Over 84 per cent of Indian districts are prone to extreme heat waves, of which 70 per cent of them are witnessing increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, according to a first-of-its-kind independent study released today by the IPE-Global and Esri India. The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have also risen in recent decades. While India has witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days across the march-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months in last three decades, last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold increase in extreme heat wave days. The study also found that monsoons seasons in India are witnessing an extended summer like condition except on non-rainy days. The study was launched at a National Symposium titled “How can India address climate extremes” organised by IPE Global, Esri India and its partners UNESCO and Climate Trends today- as the world is gearing up for the Climate Week NYC, USA where business leaders, political change makers are expected to deliberate the on-climate action commitments.

Abinash Mohanty, Head- Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the author of the study, said, “The current trend of catastrophic extreme heat and rainfall events are a resultant of 0.6 °C temperature rise in the last century. El Nino is gaining momentum and making its early presence felt across the globe with India facing the extreme events turbulence more in patterns than waves. Recent Kerala landslides triggered by incessant and erratic rainfall episodes and the cities getting paralysed with sudden and abrupt downpour is a testament that climate is changed. Our analysis suggests that 8 out of 10 Indians will be highly exposed to extreme events by 2036 and these numbers peak of volumes. Embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establish climate-risk observatories should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change”.

Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India, said, “The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves in conjunction with intense precipitations are causing significant impacts on lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. A holistic, data-driven approach is essential for informed policy decisions, climate adaptation, and resilience. GIS technology, with advanced spatial analysis tools and the ability to integrate a variety of data, enables a comprehensive understanding of the impact of climate from economic, social, and environmental perspectives. Decision-makers in government can use it for resilient infrastructure planning & development, disaster management, and citizen engagement. Businesses can integrate climate insights for better strategic planning and building higher resilience in supply chains and business operations. GIS technology is already the core foundation of various disaster resilience programs, infrastructure, utilities, natural resources management, and missions like smart cities, AMRUT, National Water Mission, and Clean Ganga, among others. At Esri India, we continuously work towards enabling our partners and end users with the latest technology, tools, and data, so that they can use mapping and location analytics to manage the impacts of climate change in their efforts to build a sustainable future for all.”

Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur are witnessing the double whammy of heat stress and extreme rainfall

The IPE Global study found that more than 84 per cent of Indian districts can be considered extreme heatwave hotspots, of which around 70 per cent have witnessed incessant and erratic rainfall more recurrently (in last three decades) in the last three decades in the monsoon season (JJAS). Further, in October, November, and December (OND), more than 62 per cent of heatwave-prone Indian districts have been witnessing erratic and incessant rainfall. The increase in atmospheric temperatures and humidity increases the likelihood of heatwaves globally, especially in tropical regions. Based on the study’ regional analysis the following states are witnessing extreme heat waves.

Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director- IPE Global, said, “Recently United Nations Secretary- General António Guterres issued a “Call to action on extreme heat in response to the deadly impacts of rising temperatures all over the world” and India is not insulted. Climate and development pathways are intricately linked. Nearly all countries of the Global South are faced with the challenge of having to improve living conditions for a large proportion of their people and simultaneously adapt to the consequences of climate change. We at IPE have been continuously striving to develop and implement strategies that convert environment risks into competitive advantage- and this study is a testament to how we can bring innovations from margins to mainstream that make India and Global South climate ready. Then in true sense India can become the climate solutions capital to the world”.

Changing patterns of climate events

The study found a trend that extreme heatwave hotspots are witnessing an increase in frequency and intensity of incessant and erratic rainfall events. Districts on coasts—both the eastern coast and western coast—have been observing unpredictable rainfall events more recurrently. Districts with higher heatwave occurrences in June-July-August-September tend to have higher occurrences of incessant and erratic rainfall events as well. Rising temperatures and humidity in the atmosphere increase the likelihood of heatwaves globally, especially in tropical regions. The increased frequency and intensity of heatwave days that are triggering incessant and erratic rainfall events due to climate change pose significant challenges, necessitating comprehensive strategies for mitigation and adaptation to protect affected vulnerable communities. The study finds that Around 8 out of 10 Indians are going to be exposed to extreme heat events by 2036. The study also found that districts that identified district hotspots have undergone a 55 per cent change in land-use-land-cover. These changing patterns are due to microclimatic changes across the Indian subcontinent that are triggered by local climate change drivers such as land-use-surface change, deforestation, encroachments upon mangroves, and wetlands.

The study recommends that risk assessment principles should form the core of India’s strategy to build heat wave and extreme rainfall resilience. As a first step, it proposes establishing a heat risk observatory (HRO)- an observatory can help in identifying, assessing, and projecting chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level to better prepare against heat-related extremities such as urban heat islands, water stress, vector-borne diseases, crop loss, and biodiversity and ecosystem collapse. It also suggests Devising risk financing instruments to mitigate heat risk and extreme rainfall events. Further, it suggests appointing heat-risk-champions within district disaster management committees- this will allow these agencies to prioritise and unify the heat-risk mitigation efforts at the district level and, consequently, accelerate heat resilience.

The IPE and Esri study holds significance as it provides a micro-level hazard assessment of heat and rainfall extremes across Indian districts. It argues that comprehensive risk assessments at the hyper- local level are the need of the hour and relying just on global models wont be effective. Moreover, identifying and estimating climatic risks is one of the global call-to-action to climate-proof lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and economies at the India lead G20 presidency which is being further materialised at the current edition of Brazil G20.

Methodology

The study is the first-of-its-kind district level heat-risk and extreme rain fall attributional co-relation by discussing the complexity and non-linear trends and patterns through development of a region- specific temperature thresholds roster on a multi-decadal time scale (1993–2022). Through spatial and climatological modelling focuses on generating empirical evidence on the exposure of Indian districts to extreme heat wave and incessant and erratic rainfall. This study maps the micro-seasonal variations.

The study, “Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate,” can be accessed here.